Now, G20 leaders are dodging the hard part. No one should be shocked. The idea that “inexperienced aides” missed the memo on the importance of banning fossil fuels? Please. They knew exactly what they were doing.

Here’s the dynamic: COP talks big. G20 delivers (or doesn’t). COP says, “let’s save the planet.” G20 says, “who’s paying for it?” This time, they didn’t even fake enthusiasm.

Some are calling Rio a win, pointing to the G20’s promise to scale up climate finance “from billions to trillions.” But this comes wrapped in vague promises, with no details on timelines or mechanisms. Critics are already calling it hollow rhetoric, masking the absence of real action on fossil fuels.

Trump’s reelection played its part. His pro-oil stance and “drill, baby, drill” battle cry have reshaped global climate diplomacy—all without being armed with more than mere words and a healthy show of voter support. G20 leaders were always going to tread lightly. The political reality now favors fossil fuels, and that was reflected in Rio’s final language—or lack of it.

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