Gazprom’s CEO Alexei Miller is ringing in the New Year with one heck of a performance review. The Power of Siberia pipeline, a cornerstone of Russia’s pivot to China, has exceeded its 2024 contract volume, delivering 31 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas instead of the planned 30 bcm. The kicker? The pipeline hit full capacity—38 bcm per year—ahead of schedule, as Russia remains determined to cement its role as China’s top gas supplier.

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But while Russia is flexing its infrastructure muscle, China is playing the long game. Although Beijing needs gas to fuel its growth, it doesn’t want to be stuck holding the energy equivalent of a monopoly card. Diversification is the name of the game, with LNG imports and other regional suppliers providing a counterbalance to Russia’s overtures. Mongolia’s decision to exclude Power of Siberia 2 from its five-year plan hints that China is keeping its options open.

Still, the numbers are hard to ignore. Russia’s natural gas exports to China via pipeline and LNG are soaring, and Gazprom’s dominance is unmatched. Turkmenistan, once the top supplier of pipeline gas to China, has been firmly outpaced. And while Gazprom celebrates, OPEC and other energy producers grapple with shifting demand dynamics and a China keen on electrifying its fleet.

The figures suggest that Russia is all-in on China, and while that bet is paying off now, the long-term implications of putting too many eggs in one Beijing-shaped basket lie ahead.

By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com

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