Central European gas flows have fully adapted to the end of Russian gas supply via Ukraine, with Germany and Italy making up the shortfall. According to Austrian Grid Management, the country boosted imports from Germany and Italy when flows from Slovakia were halted after Ukraine declined to renew a 5-year gas transit deal with Russia. Slovakia has drawn on a connection with Hungary as its only source of imports so far in the new year after Gazprom stopped supplying Slovenský plynárenský priemysel (SPP) as the Ukraine transit ended.

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Meanwhile, the United States is likely to emerge as the biggest winner of the unfolding situation in Europe–if recent developments are any indication. Norway and the U.S. have replaced Russia as Europe’s biggest gas supplier: last year, Norway supplied 87.8 bcm (billion cubic meters) of gas to Europe, good for 30.3% of total imports while the U.S. supplied 56.2 bcm, accounting for 19.4% of total. However, the U.S. is thebiggest LNG supplier to Europe: last year, the U.S. accounted for nearly half of total LNG imports by the continent, marking the third consecutive year in which the United States supplied more LNG to Europe than any other country. 

The U.S. supplied 27%, or 2.4 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), of total European LNG imports in 2021; 44% (6.5 Bcf/d) in 2022; and 48% (7.1 Bcf/d) in 2023. Meanwhile, Europe’s capacity to accept LNG is increasing. Europe’s LNG import, or regasification, capacity was on track to expand to 29.3 Bcf/d in 2024, a 33% increase compared with 2021. Germany is adding the most LNG regasification capacity in Europe, with developers in the country having added 1.8 Bcf/d in 2023 and on track to add another 1.6 Bcf/d in 2024.

By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com

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