A shareholder of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), which exports Kazakhstan’s oil via the Black Sea, estimates that the firm pumped 64.4 million metric tons of oil in 2024, well below its target to export more than 70 million tons (1.5 million barrels per day). Back in May, the consortium announced that it expects its oil exports to fall 7% short of a preliminary target owing to lower loadings from Tengiz, working out to ~65.2 million tons. Still, 2024 exports surpassed the previous record high of 63.5 million tons set in 2023.

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Overall, Kazakhstan set a target to produce 88.4 million metric tons of crude in 2024 (1.82 million barrels per day), down from an original plan of more than 90 million tons reflecting Kazakhstan’s OPEC+ output reduction commitments.

Earlier in the year, Russia, Iraq and Kazakhstan submitted their compensation plans to the OPEC Secretariat for overproduced crude volumes for the first six months of 2024. According to OPEC, the entire over-produced volumes will be fully compensated for over the next 15 months through September 2025, with Russia ‘paying back’ a cumulative 480 kb/d, Iraq 1,184 kb/d and Kazakhstan 620 kb/d. Many traders are worried that the balance of oil demand growth and non-OPEC+ supply growth might not offset the scale of restored OPEC+output, leaving oil markets oversupplied. However, this view ignores repeated assurances from OPEC+ that the tapering would be fully dependent on market conditions.

Meanwhile, Kazakhstan could sharply increase its crude oil exports out of Turkey’s port of Ceyhan, and dramatically reduce the more than 80% share of flows it currently sends via Russia, Reuters has reported. According to  Kazakhstan Energy Minister Almasadam Satkaliyev, exports via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline could increase to 20 million metric tons a year from the current 1.5 million as the country increases oil production.

By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com

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