Alaska’s LNG project is back in the spotlight with a new aggressive timeline: first exports by 2030. Bold? Absolutely. Realistic? Yes, according to Governor Mike Dunleavy speaking at CERAWeek.

The $44 billion venture would move 3.5 billion cubic feet per day from the North Slope down an 800-mile pipeline to an LNG terminal, shipping out to eager buyers in Asia. According to Dunleavy, interest is strong from Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, and Thailand—markets that have been hungry for stable, long-term LNG supply.

In February, for example, Taiwan expressed interest in buying Alaskan LNG as a way of avoiding tariffs—shortly after Japan—the world’s second-largest LNG importer—had done the same. 

For now, the project has Washington in its corner. It got the go-ahead in Trump’s first term, made it through the legal wringer, and now Trump’s back, bringing fresh support. Energy Secretary Chris Wright is even dropping hints about federal loan guarantees.

It is the only federally permitted LNG export facility on the U.S. West Coast, offering direct, canal-free shipping via uncontested waters to Asian markets, the Alaska Gasoline Development Corporation has said.

President Trump said of an executive order he signed on Day 1 that it would unleash “Alaska’s extraordinary resource potential,” which includes prioritizing “the development of Alaska’s LNG potential, including the permitting of all necessary pipeline and export infrastructure related to the Alaska LNG Project, giving due consideration to the economic and national security benefits associated with such development.”

But will investors bite? The LNG market has had its ups and downs, and while Asian demand is solid, developers still need to justify the sky-high capex. Dunleavy’s optimism is one thing, but until the dollars start flowing, the 2030 target remains just that—a target.

By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com

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