Canada’s energy exports to the United States surged in the latter part of 2024, helping the country record its biggest surplus with its main trading partner since 2022. Crude oil exports jumped amid a weakening Canadian dollar as well as traders stockpiling inventories ahead of Trump’s tariffs. The trade surplus widened to C$11.3 billion in December, up from C$8.2 billion previously while crude exports to the U.S. jumped 11.8% in the final quarter. Nearly 76% of all exports by Canada went to the U.S. compared to 62% of all imports coming from the U.S. Last year, the value of Canada’s imports and exports with the U.S. surpassed the C$1 trillion mark for a third straight year.

“Exports to the U.S. rose by 5%, and may have reflected some front-running of potential tariffs, but higher oil prices also would have boosted that figure,” Andrew Grantham, economist at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, said in a report to investors. “The continued depreciation of the Canadian dollar during the month also contributed to higher trade activity in C$ terms.”

Over the weekend, Trump threatened Canada and Mexico with duties of 25% and China with a 10% levy. Oil flows facing tariffs represent 44% of U.S. oil product imports, 69% of crude oil imports and 81% of heavy crude oil imports.

The U.S. imported ~ 6.6 million barrels per day (mb/d) of crude oil in the first 10 months of 2024, of which 4.0 mb/d was heavy oil for use in upgraded refineries with cracking units. Canada provided 75% of U.S. heavy crude oil imports in 2024, with its market share having steadily increased since 2000, squeezing outflows from Mexico, Venezuela and Colombia.  Some 80% of Canada’s crude production flows downstream to U.S. refiners, with U.S. imports of Canadian crude reaching a record high of 4.42M bbl/day in the week ending January 3, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com

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