Turns out the coal party might be winding down early—at least for Glencore. The world’s biggest exporter of thermal coal has finally said “enough is enough” and announced it’s cutting output at its Colombian Cerrejon mine by up to 10 million tons this year. That’ll leave production somewhere between 11 and 16 million tons, depending on how grim things get.

Coal prices are in the gutter. Newcastle coal futures have sunk to around $100 per ton, a far cry from the $450 highs we saw in 2022 during the post-invasion energy panic. This time, the culprit is less geopolitics and more good old-fashioned oversupply. India and China are pumping out record amounts of coal, which has sent prices skidding and stockpiles ballooning.

Glencore said in a Tuesday statement carried by Bloomberg that prices are now “unsustainable.” Translation: they made a killing two years ago, but those days are over. Profits have fallen, and they’re hoping a bit of supply discipline might stop the bleeding.

Meanwhile, in the U.S., President Trump is trying to will a coal comeback into existence with some patriotic caps-lock proclamations and talk of reopening shuttered plants. But even in a red-hot political climate, economics is still cold-blooded. The AI-powered data center boom may be jacking up electricity demand, but it’s natural gas—not coal—that’s swooping in as the hero. It’s cheaper, cleaner, and way more flexible.

Coal could get a brief second wind if natural gas prices keep climbing. But the chances of a full-blown renaissance are anything but certain.

So while Glencore pulls back to stop the bleeding, and Trump tries to CPR coal back to relevance, the market seems to have already chosen its darling. Spoiler: it’s not coal.

By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com

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