Goldman Sachs analysts predict Brent crude prices could temporarily surge to $93 per barrel if sanctions successfully curb oil exports from Iran and Russia by a combined 1 million barrels per day (bpd). In a note shared by Zerohedge on X, the bank outlined a scenario where Iran faces persistent supply disruptions while Russia experiences temporary setbacks, tightening global crude markets. With geopolitical tensions already pressuring supply chains, traders are watching for any policy shifts that could exacerbate the squeeze.

Goldman: “We estimate that Brent could temporarily rise to $93/bbl in a scenario where sanctioned supply falls by 1mb/d persistently for Iran and temporarily for Russia”

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) January 31, 2025

Meanwhile, oil prices have fallen for the second consecutive week, finishing this week around $2 per barrel lower than a week ago. The downward price trend could soon come to an end, however, with President Donald Trump’s February 1 deadline for punitive tariffs on Canada and Mexico fast approaching.

One potential spanner in the works with Goldman’s $93 per barrel scenario is OPEC’s production plans, which are facing pressure from the recently installed US President to ramp up production to lower crude oil prices—ostensibly for the purposes of forcing Russia’s hand even further to give up its ambitions in Ukraine. Standard Chartered, however, feels that the President is unlikely to be successful in his attempts to wield lower oil prices as a geopolitical maneuver—in part because of the lower oil prices that would sink the US oil industry as well.

According to StanChart, OPEC+ is unlikely to adjust its current production plans, which saw a delay to the ramp-up until April of this year and extends the unwinding period to the end of next year to prevent oversupply in the market.

In October, Goldman Sachs estimated that its Brent price forecast would peak $10-$20 per barrel this year due to potential disruptions in Iranian production.

By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com

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