Global trade in fossil fuels peaked in 2017 and is set to decline as nations seeking energy security accelerate investments in renewable energy and nuclear power, Carlyle Group’s Jeff Currie wrote in a research note Monday. Whereas Currie does not expect fossil fuels to go out of the picture any time soon, he argues that fossil fuel imports are easier to block than wind and solar sources. Currie has, however, predicted that the U.S. energy mix is likely to remain skewed toward fossil fuels thanks to the country’s abundant supply.

“The share of global energy consumption that came from fossil fuels that crossed borders peaked in 2017, and has since declined by 5%,” Currie wrote in the research piece outlining what he calls the “New Joule Order”.

Currie’s predictions are already playing out in Europe, the world’s biggest consumer of natural gas. Fossil fuels, including natural gas, are gradually losing their grip on EU energy with renewables remaining, by far, Europe’s key energy source. Last year, renewable energy contributed 48% of the EU power generation mix, followed by nuclear at 24% and fossil fuels at 28%–the lowest share ever. Indeed, 2024 marked the lowest emissions from the EU power sector with a 13% drop compared to 2023. While nuclear remains the continent’s single leading power source, wind power leads over natural gas. Meanwhile, last year, Europe’s solar generation overtook coal for the first time ever.

This trend predates Russia’s war in Ukraine: since the enactment of the European Green Deal in 2019, wind and solar have been gradually pushing coal to the margins and forcing natural gas into structural decline. Europe’s green energy transition has gathered extra momentum over the past three years due to Russia’s war. 

The European Union has implemented measures to significantly shorten the permit granting process for renewable energy projects, including designating specific “Renewable Energy Acceleration Areas” where projects undergo simplified and faster permitting procedures, aiming to expedite the development of renewable energy sources like solar and wind power across the bloc. 

By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com

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