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Kazakhstan’s OPEC+ Problem Just Cost the Oil Minister His Job
Kazakhstan has once again found itself on the wrong side of OPEC+ production targets, and this time, it seems to have cost the oil minister his job. The country has been pumping oil as if the quotas didn’t exist, hitting record production levels at 1.767 million barrels per day in February (with the help of Chevron)—a cool 300,000 barrels over its quota.
Naturally, this hasn’t sat well with OPEC+, particularly those members actually following the rules, and it has cost the country’s oil minister his job.
Enter Almasadam Satkaliyev, as of this week, is out as energy minister according to a statement made by the presidential office. While he may be out as energy minister, he is in as the head of Kazakhstan’s newly minted atomic energy agency.
The timing is interesting given Kazakhstan has zero nuclear power plants.
The Kazakh government has been scrambling—unsuccesfully—to get U.S. and European oil majors operating in the country to turn down the taps.
Chevron, ExxonMobil, Shell, and the other big players running Kazakhstan’s Tengiz and Kashagan fields don’t exactly take orders from the government. They take their cues from shareholders, contracts, profits, and—apparently—not OPEC+. And while Kazakhstan has promised to compensate for past overproduction by cutting barrels in March, April, and May, there’s little evidence that’s actually happening.
OPEC+ isn’t amused. Russia’s Alexander Novak has already made it clear that members need to stick to their quotas, and the bloc is even talking about speeding up compensation cuts for offenders.
Kazakhstan isn’t alone in this. Iraq, Nigeria, have been quietly overproducing as well.
With Brent crude hovering near $70, OPEC+ is already on shaky ground. Kazakhstan might promise more cuts, but if history tells us anything, it’s that when the decision comes down to market share or quota discipline, the barrels keep flowing.
OPEC+ is left deciding whether to play referee or just let the whole thing implode.
By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com
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Julianne Geiger
Julianne Geiger is a veteran editor, writer and researcher for Oilprice.com, and a member of the Creative Professionals Networking Group.
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George Doolittle on March 18 2025 said:
Next up Syria….and Alaska and North Dakota and all of Canada …and as usual Texas. Good think the FOMC started an easing policy last Year 2024 yes yes? Unsurprisingly Europe in the middle of World War 3 now massively expanded has almost zero demand for oil as well actually. The War has taken the entire Civilian Economy off line there. Nice up day for $hmc Honda Motor Corporation as the entire USA plunges into foreclosure everywhere. There goes the fancy car, the fancy boat, the private plane, the super talls all of it. Long Western New York strong buy as Tesla starts ramping up production in Buffalo as well. Who doesn’t need every revenue dollar they can get right now? Long Beaufort SC now crazy real estate bullshit factor 11 there. Meanwhile in Savannah, Charleston, Atlanta, Charlotte, Miami nothing *BUT* stupid there the last few years….and many many moar. Asheville NC booming tho thanks to an absolutely *MASSIVE* rebuilding effort actually worthy of that happening. Who’s the dumb fuck who wants to live in Florida still? Same true of Texas and Alabama now as well, right?
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