As Donald Trump’s return to the White House looms, so does the specter of another trade war, and Canada seems to be sharpening its economic arsenal. Rumors are swirling in Ottawa about potential export taxes on uranium, oil, and potash—the very lifeblood of American industry. It’s a chess move that some say reeks of desperation. Others may call it a cold calculation aimed squarely at a president who might just be bold enough to drag his neighbors into a tariff-fueled skirmish.

‘;
document.write(write_html);
}

A tax on these commodities could bite deep into supply chains and consumer wallets.

The Western provinces of Canada, however, are having none of it. Conservative provincial leaders in oil-rich Alberta and potash-heavy Saskatchewan have labeled the idea of export taxes everything from “terrible” to outright “betrayal.” Their vocal opposition underscores the political grenade Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is juggling: keeping his progressive base happy while not alienating voters in the resource-dependent heartlands.

Meanwhile, Ontario Premier Doug Ford has made it clear he’s ready to pull the plug—literally—by threatening to cut off energy exports to the U.S.

All this, of course, comes amid a backdrop of rising Chinese influence in critical minerals and a U.S. increasingly reliant on Canadian resources to hedge against Beijing. A messy divorce from its top trading partner would leave Washington scrambling—and Trudeau knows it. Whether this brinkmanship leads to compromise or conflagration, apparently only pundits can say.

By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com

• Exxon to Increase Oil Production by 18% By 2030
• Gazprom Hits Maximum Capacity of Pipeline Gas Flows to China
• European Energy Majors Shift Back to Oil and Gas