Metals sell off after US election Trump win while oil, agriculture recoup some losses

By Nina Chestney, Julian Luk and Karl Plume

LONDON/CHICAGO (Reuters) -Metals bore the brunt of global commodity price losses after a U.S. election win by Donald Trump on Wednesday, while oil, gas and agricultural commodity prices recouped some losses.

Trump recaptured the White House by securing more than the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win the presidency, following a campaign of dark rhetoric that deepened the polarization in the country.

Oil prices flattened after falling by more than $2 per barrel earlier on a stronger dollar, with some analysts and investors saying the earlier decline was an over-reaction to the election results. [O/R]

Although Trump has long backed U.S. oil and gas production and could introduce heavy tariffs on imports which dampen economic growth and demand for fossil fuels, U.S. oil and gas production already hit record highs under former U.S. President Joe Biden, said Jacob Mandel at consultancy Aurora Energy Research.

Benchmark European gas prices flattened out after rising slightly earlier.

Agricultural commodities rebounded from earlier lows, with corn and wheat turning higher and soybeans paring losses on the back of sharply higher soyoil futures.

A stronger dollar makes U.S. grain more expensive overseas and tariffs proposed by Trump could disrupt U.S. agricultural trade, particularly soybeans to leading importer China, which could retaliate with reduced purchases.

But the peak U.S. soy export season is currently winding down so any impact from Chinese retaliation may not be felt until next summer.

Also, Trump’s promised tariff hikes on all imports could curb imports of used cooking oil by biofuels producers, boosting demand for domestically produced soyoil.

Precious metals were still down, with gold prices at a three-week low on Wednesday, while copper lost nearly 4% and is set to post its biggest intraday loss in five months.

For other metals, zinc became the worst performer of the base metals complex. The galvanising metal prices declined as China’s steel industries could face headwinds as Trump pledged to boost local U.S. manufacturing.

The copper market is pricing in the long-term direction of Trump’s policies, a trader said.

Trump said he would “rescind all unspent funds” under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), the Biden-Harris administration’s signature climate law to decouple the global supply chain from China, which includes hundreds of billions of dollars in subsidies for electric vehicles, solar and wind energy, and increasing production of strategic minerals.

“Gold will be torn between the risk of rising inflation, potentially slowing the pace of U.S. rate cuts, as tariffs are rolled out and continued demand for safe haven assets,” Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said.

Commodity prices started to fall overnight as traders started to price in the likelihood of a Trump win.

“This scenario is expected to bring about the promised tariffs on imported goods, particularly targeting China, potentially triggering a new wave of trade tensions and economic disruptions,” Hansen added.