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Nigeria’s Oil Recovery: A War Room, Some Luck, and a Dash of Ambition
Nigeria, long the wildcard of OPEC, has cranked up its oil production to a respectable 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd), claiming on Thursday that it could hit 2 million bpd by year-end—not even two months away.
That’s a bold promise, especially for a country that barely scraped together 1.3 million bpd just last month, according to the direct communication figure in OPEC’s October Monthly Oil Market Report.
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Of course, Nigeria could very well be sneaking in hundreds of thousands of barrels of condensate when throwing around that 2 million bpd number.
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So, how has this production miracle happened? The Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) is patting itself on the back for “collaborative efforts” with joint ventures and production-sharing partners. That collaboration extends to security forces as well because Nigeria has found it difficult to pump oil when its pipelines have served as playgrounds for crude thieves and saboteurs.
NNPC CEO Mele Kyari praised his team’s work, which involved not just recovering production but apparently turning what has been a disjointed mess into something with which shareholders might even be semi-satisfied. The “war room” strategy launched in June brought together oil companies, private security, and government officials to tackle crude theft head-on. Vessels were destroyed, illegal refiners arrested, and pipelines closely monitored—because desperate times call for explosive measures.
Nigeria’s rebound is part of a broader OPEC storyline. In October, the cartel saw a 466,000 bpd increase in total output, driven by Libya’s triumphant return to full capacity after resolving a political crisis that nearly halved its production. To the surprise of just a few, fresh unrest has once again wreaked havoc in Libya, with protestors shutting down the oil distribution valves connecting Libya’s largest oilfield to the Zawya refinery.
Whether Nigeria’s ambitions stick or slip depends on how well the “war room” holds up against its greatest nemesis—chaos.
By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com
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