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TotalEnergies: Oil Demand Will Peak After 2030

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Alex Kimani

Alex Kimani is a veteran finance writer, investor, engineer and researcher for Safehaven.com. 

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TotalEnergies: Oil Demand Will Peak After 2030

French oil and gas giant TotalEnergies (NYSE:TTE) has predicted that global oil demand will peak after 2030 in its most likely scenarios, driven by population growth, slow power grid investments, and lagging electric vehicle sales.

There are around 4.5 billion people today with insufficient access to energy in the so-called ‘global south’… If you add to that the expected growth in population to 2050 you would need to multiply current energy production by four to pull them out of energy poverty,” Total’s Sustainability and Strategy Director Aurelien Hamelle said at a press conference.

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Total’s relatively bullish prediction goes counter to recent predictions by other energy agencies. Last month, the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted that global demand for all fossil fuels will stop growing this decade at a time when supplies of oil and LNG are poised to continue growing. Obviously, this is highly bearish for oil and gas prices. On a brighter note, the world’s leading energy watchdog says this development will come as a major boon for consumers because electricity prices will start declining as renewables play a bigger role in our generation mix.

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The world is set to enter a new energy market context in the second half of this decade because underlying market balances for oil and gas are easing. Bar major geopolitical conflicts, we will be entering a period where prices will see significant downward pressures,”  IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said in an interview.

According to IEA, electricity use will increase six times faster than total energy demand during the coming 10 years while electric vehicles will account for 50% of new car sales worldwide by 2030, up from 20% currently. IEA has predicted that in 2030, the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of solar PV with storage in the U.S. will clock in at $45/MWh, considerably lower than $70/MWh by natural gas.

By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com

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