The Trump administration just turned up the heat on Iran’s oil operations, slapping fresh sanctions on Iran’s oil minister Mohsen Paknejad and a handful of shadowy tankers sneaking crude to China. Treasury’s reasoning? Paknejad is allegedly funneling billions in oil revenue directly to Iran’s armed forces, and the ships—some flagged in Hong Kong, Liberia, and Seychelles—are playing an elaborate game of maritime hide-and-seek to keep the crude flowing.

Washington has been running this playbook for years. Sanctions have been a favorite U.S. tool to curb Iran’s oil exports, but Tehran’s response has been equally predictable: deny, deflect, and keep the tankers moving. The so-called “shadow fleet” has mastered the art of deception—turning off transponders, faking ship registrations, and engaging in ship-to-ship transfers in the middle of nowhere to dodge Western oversight.

China, the primary buyer of Iran’s heavily discounted crude, has consistently ignored U.S. sanctions, happily importing Iranian oil under the radar. Even India, though publicly less bold, has been indirectly linked to these shipments. Sanctioning a few tankers and companies might slow things down momentarily, but it won’t change the fact that demand for Iranian crude still exists—and where there’s demand, supply will find a way.

Geopolitically, this is Washington’s way of keeping pressure on Tehran at a time when Iran is making it abundantly clear that it won’t negotiate “under pressure and intimidation.” And with oil prices hovering around $70, the global market has yet to react dramatically. But if these sanctions actually bite and reduce Iranian exports meaningfully, there could be a ripple effect—especially if OPEC+ doesn’t step in to fill the gap.

By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com

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